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Tesla meets Elon Musk’s goal, delivering 367,500 cars in 2019

Tesla Inc. said it delivered 367,500 vehicles in 2019, achieving sales forecasts released by chief executive Elon Musk and pushing its stock to a new record high.

The Silicon Valley automaker finished 2019 on an upswing. Last year it opened a new manufacturing plant in China, made a rare profit in the third quarter, and recorded its record price high.

Tesla was required to deliver 104,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter to meet Musk’s 2019 forecast of between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles.

Tesla delivered 112,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Among them, there were 92,550 Model 3s, a growth rate of 16.3% over the previous quarter and up from 46% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The more expensive and aging Model S sedan and Model X SUV models had a combined 19,450 deliveries for the quarter. This is 11.8% higher than the previous quarter, but 37% lower than the fourth quarter of 2018.

The company worked hard to deliver the cars before the clock struck 12 on New Year’s Eve. When the federal Tesla tax credit of $ 1,875 per buyer disappeared. Tesla went to great lengths to help some customers take delivery of their cars on time to receive tax credits, paying a journalist who lives in Florida to fly to St. Louis so that year Can pick up his car before the end of. Customers arrived at Tesla’s factory and delivery hub in Fremont, California, on New Year’s Eve, to take delivery of their car, which took several days of midnight to complete the paperwork.

Tesla’s stock price rose 5.5% on Friday morning to close at an all-time high of $ 443.01, up 3%. The shares opened 2019 at $ 310.12 and plunged to $ 178.97 before recovering – before recovering from third quarter profits. High of $ 430.94 the next day after Christmas. They closed the year at $ 418.33, up 35% for the year.

Vesush equity analyst Dan Ives said in a note to investors, delivery numbers put “a major feather in Musk & Company’s cap”.

But Tesla Bear insisted on not finishing the story. Mark Spiegel, who runs a Stanfill Capital hedge fund with a large short position at Tesla, said the stock is too high. “This is the best of a slow-growth car company – on a permanent basis – loses a lot of money, yet it costs more than 10” [times] Evaluation of comparable automakers, ”he said.

The delivery of each quarter feeds into the shifting scene of Tesla’s prospects of Wall Street. Uncertainty is typified by long-range target prices for Tesla stock in early December by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas: $ 500 for the “bull” case, $ 250 for the “base” case, and “bear bear” “$ 10 for case.

Jonas’ Bull case hinges on tremendous sales growth, enthusiastic customer feedback for the upcoming Model Y compact SUV and rapid acceptance of Tesla’s controversial autopilot and “full self-driving” driver assistance technologies. Musk has promised that by the end of this year those technologies will be made completely driverless Tesla robotaxis (a consequence that none are possible outside of Tesla in the driverless industry).

Bear’s case predicts that Tesla’s overall sales growth will hit a wall and that Musk Robotaxis and long-promised but unsatisfied products such as Tesla Semi trucks and executing as an expensive Roadster sports car Will fail

Overall sales of Tesla are expected to increase from sales in China of Model 3s manufactured at the new plant in Shanghai. A recent report by JL Warren Capital predicted Tesla China’s sales of 44,686 vehicles in 2019 and 68,400 in 2020. This is a tremendous growth rate considering the new plant starts production in late December. The facility is being constructed to commission 150,000 cars a year in 2020, and eventually, at an annual rate of 500,000. Selling anywhere close to those numbers will affect the bull scene of Tesla’s stock.

The fourth quarter delivery numbers were highlighted by large sales in the Netherlands, where rich tax incentives for electric cars were dramatically reduced on 1 January. Tesla did not break Europe’s sales by country, but accordingly Kentekenradar, Which publishes daily Dutch fleet data updates, in December alone over 12,000 Model 3s were registered in the Netherlands. The car has double the previous best month in September.

Musk expects dramatic Europe development. In the midst of Tesla’s year-end stock up, the CEO announced plans to build an auto plant in Germany near Berlin. If it is built, it could add capacity for the other 500,000 cars.

Those ambitions should be countered by the United States federal electric-car subsidy, which once was $ 7,500 per customer, but was reduced to $ 1,875 in July and ran entirely in January 1, as Tesla’s total sales The volume topped 200,000 vehicles a year. General Motors’ EV customers will lose federal subsidies this year.

Other car makers, including those who jumped into the EV market in 2019 – Jaguar, Audi, Hyundai and Kia – are still eligible for the federal customer rebate. More EV models are due this year. Whether or not Tesla has enough to present the electric car challenge remains to be seen.

Bloomberg contributed to this report.

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