When will the coronavirus epidemic end? This is a question that everyone is asking, but no one has a definite answer? However, senior officials of the Ministry of Health predict that the epidemic may end in India by the middle of this year.
Dr. Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health), Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, made this prediction in an article recently published in the International Journal of Epidemiology. The article is co-authored by Rupali Roy, serving as the Deputy Assistant Director General (Leprosy) of the Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health. Their prediction is based on Bailey’s model, where relative ejection rates are considered to arrive at a conclusion.
Dr. Kumar said, “When the number of infected equals the number of patients removed, the coefficient will reach the 100% limit, then this epidemic will end.”
According to Kumar, the relative removal rate has increased from 42% on May 19 to 50% now and will reach 100% by mid-September 2020. However, he stated that not all mathematical models are absolute, and the results also depend on the quality of available data.
India is the 5th most hit COVID-19 country
Despite the implementation of a series of lockdowns, India is seeing a rapidly increasing number of COVID-19 cases. As of today (7 June), the number of confirmed cases in the country has reached 2,46,628 and 6,929 people have lost their lives with this condition, according to data from the website of the Union Ministry of Health. Globally, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is 6,663,304, including 392,802 deaths, according to a recent World Health Organization (WHO) report.
With 9,887 new COVID-19 cases recorded on Saturday – the largest one-day spike ever – India has now become the 5th worst coronavirus-hit country in the world, overtaking Spain with around 244,000 cases. A day earlier (on Friday), India captured one of the biggest victims of the disease, Italy. Today 19 Indian states have their own length of confirmed cases in four or more digits. In addition, five states now have five-digit heights, including Maharashtra (82968), Tamil Nadu (30152), Delhi (27654), Gujarat (19592), and Rajasthan (10331). Maharashtra continues to be on top in terms of total confirmed cases, active cases, recovery and deaths. In the case of fatal cases, Gujarat ranks second, followed by Delhi.
WHO says COVID-19 may be endemic
With no treatment for COVID-19 yet, some experts fear that the coronavirus pandemic could potentially turn into an endemic one. During a press conference last month, WHO’s emergency director Drs. Mike Ryan stated that COVID-19 infection can never go away and is likely to become “just another endemic virus” in our communities.
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), endemic refers to the continued presence and / or general prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area. For example, diseases such as malaria and chickenpox that still exist despite the presence of vaccines. Several studies also indicate that there will be coronavirus epidemic waves. This means that even if a place has flattened its COVID-19 curve, the disease may return after some time and affect a large number of people.
With inputs from IANS