Rupee likely to open higher on weakness in greenback; USDINR pair to trade in this range

The Indian rupee is likely to open higher on Friday amid weakness in US greenback, falling crude oil costs. Today, the USDINR pair is anticipated to open close to the 77.45 stage and is likely to swing between 77.30 to 77.65 ranges, mentioned analysts. In the earlier session, the rupee depreciated in opposition to the US greenback whilst oil costs eased and home equities settled on a constructive observe. At the interbank overseas alternate market, the native unit consolidated in a slender range. It opened decrease at 77.61 in opposition to the buck and traded in 77.63-77.54 range earlier than lastly settling 77.60, down 10 paise over its earlier shut. Today, focus will probably be on the companies PMI and non-farm payrolls quantity from the US.

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“Rupee continued to trade in a narrow range despite marginal gains in domestic and global equities. Volatility remained low ahead of the private payrolls number that was released from the US. U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in May, which would suggest demand for labor was starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tightening financial conditions. Earlier this week, manufacturing PMI number released from the US came in better-than-estimates. Today, focus will be on the services PMI and non-farm payrolls number from the US. Expectation is that the number could beat estimates and that could extend gains for the dollar. We expect USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 77.05 and 77.80.”

Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors

“Today, the USDINR pair is expected to open near the 77.45 level and is likely to swing between 77.30 to 77.65 levels. Domestic equities are expected to extend its recovery to trade at a month high following a rebound on Wall Street. Asian markets and currencies are trading on a positive note. The widening trade deficit above $23 billion (May month) didn’t fetch any negative move in Rupee. Broadly, the ongoing range of 77.40 to 77.70 could extend it further for a few more days. Technically, if 77.40 is taken out with other fundamentals and sentiment remains constant, then further correction towards 77.10 to 76.80 levels can be expected.”

Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities

“One more ultra-narrow range day in USDINR. Interestingly, over the last 3 weeks, USDINR has remained dead flat, obtaining the tag of the quietest USD pairs amongst its peers. RBI intervention is not allowing it to move higher and market sentiment is not allowing the pair to fall. As a result, only two things are left now to do in USDINR. Either to buy near lower end of the range near 77.40/50 on spot, which means 77.60/70 on futures and wait for prices to move 20 paise higher and exit, or, to sell options even at very low premium. However, option sellers need to be careful as such narrow ranges would break soon. The break can be on any direction and it may happen with a gap up or down and hence be prepared.”

Tapish Pandey, Senior Research Analyst, SMC Global Securities

“The Indian Rupee is likely to open higher after the dollar globally came under pressure in the wake of mixed cues coming from US markets. Accordingly positive risk sentiment helped most currencies strengthen relative to the USD after private payrolls for May came in weaker than expected. However, Brent is still near $120 which is likely to cap any major upside in the rupee as well. On charts, The dollar-rupee is consolidating in a range of 77.63 to 78.00 near month future levels from the last few trading sessions, for the near future same range will act as strong support and resistance respectively. the current trading setup suggests USDINR in the near month future is likely to remain in the same range for the coming session however any move beyond the above-mentioned range may decide further movement in the same direction in which the range will break.”

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